On Friday, Spain re-secured its border to the North African enclave Ceuta after a mass migration of nearly 50,000 Moroccan migrants rushed across the border. It was the largest single day of migration for Ceuta.

Spain’s Interior Ministry said that 50,000 crossed the border over the course of Thursday and Friday. Regional president of Ceuta, Juan Jesus Vivas, specified the total to be 60,000. Vivas stated that the search for the deceased may be ongoing. Spanish officials stated that the migrants who crossed the border have returned on their own after finding Ceuta to be destitute of food and shelter.

Merely describing the event does not describe the large-scale migration of this crossing, even considering the many surges over the years. Coordinating the “why” is much more complex than answering a question. Spanish officials, migration specialists, and rights groups have noted many contributing factors to the migration. These factors include a recent decision that the Spanish Supreme Court made, the economic conditions of young Moroccans and their resultant frustration, and the false information that smuggling organizations have been promoting.

Why Are Moroccans Fleeing to Spain?

No single cause has been confirmed. The Spanish authorities have pointed directly at a Supreme Court decision issued earlier in the month that they claim a smuggling ring exploited to encourage this rush. Officials, aid workers, and migrants themselves have described overlapping pressures which go beyond a single court ruling.

On Friday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said to reporters in Ceuta that social media was “ablaze” with a “self-serving interpretation” of the ruling by trafficking networks in the days leading up to the surge. He directly blamed the smuggling networks, and not the Moroccan government, which he called “a friend of Spain.”

However, generating opportunity was the actual root of these responses. For example, news reports on the crisis point to numerous surveys showing that youth unemployment in Morocco is estimated between 30 and 37 percent, though this figure is not stable and varies by survey. Researching the migrations of those in the labor movement, the crossings were not better options, but rather a “survival strategy” for those living outside of the informal economy.

The Associated Press reports that a 21-year-old Tetouan migrant, Abdulah Buji, was one of the crossings, stating the reason was that there was nothing to go back home for. However, he reported that there was nothing to go back home for and that if he could not find a job in Ceuta, the only option was to go back to Morocco.

In addition to the previous border crossers and social media posts that encourage border crossings, there is also the increasing pressure of the agricultural droughts in Northern Morocco and the increasing cost of living.

What Is Ceuta and Why Is It Important?

Ceuta is just south of the Strait of Gibraltar from Spain, built on the northern coast of Africa, an autonomous Spanish town. It borders the rest of Morocco and is one of the two enclaves of the EU on the continent of Africa, along with Melilla.

Ceuta has been a Spanish possession since the 16th Century. Morocco disputes Spain’s right to Ceuta (and Melilla) and claims the territories are occupied, even though both countries cooperate in the management of the border.

Ceuta’s complex identity means it is extremely politically sensitive. It is EU land, so every passerby is considered to have entered the EU as well, even though there are more obstacles to reaching the wider EU. For this reason, the city is subject to heightened pressures during times of peak migration.

With a current population of about 83,000, officials in Ceuta claim that it would take a migration event of 60,000 people for it to be comparable to 1,000,000 people migrating to the rest of Spain. This would place immense pressure on the city’s emergency services, infrastructure, etc.

What Triggered the Latest Migrant Surge?

Both Spain and Ceuta officials claimed that the recent spike in migrants was caused by a ruling of the Spanish Supreme Court that stopped the removal of migrants caught at sea near Ceuta or Melilla. Based on due process standards, this ruling only applies to migrants intercepted at sea. Therefore, it does not apply to migrants who enter the borders of Spain by land or jump the border fence.

The Spanish Interior Minister stated that the absence of a return policy for migrants intercepted at sea was interpreted by many of the human trafficking networks, who then advertised the absence of return in Morocco for migrants via sea on social media and other forums. Sanchez further explained that this interpretation led many of the young Moroccans to cross the border by sea in a more limited timeframe.

Some of the Moroccan migrant activists dismissed this interpretation; they explained to the media that the majority of the people who attempted the crossing were unlikely to hear about the court ruling. Their interpretation explains that the court ruling was one of the many other long-standing causes that preceded the jump.

According to the Ceuta government, a smaller wave of around 1,500-2,000 migrants entered Ceuta about 10 days before the surge on Thursday. This limited the migrant reception capacity ahead of the greater surge.

Analysts have also wondered if Moroccan border officials delayed more than normal in intervening. They point to previous situations, including a 2021 situation in which Morocco appeared to ease enforcement during a surge amid heightened diplomatic tensions with Spain. This theory has not been validated. During the crisis, the Moroccan Interior Ministry did not respond to several inquiries from the press. Karima Béniaich, Morocco’s Ambassador to Spain, stated the situation occurred contrary to her government’s intentions. She stated that her country “has always prioritized legal migration, orderly migration, and safe immigration for all.”

Economic and Political Factors

The crossings are a reflection of economic conditions in Morocco that have been persistent for many years. Researchers and aid organizations have repeatedly cited high youth unemployment, limited employment opportunities, and the drought-driven strain in agricultural regions of northern Morocco as “push factors”.

There is also a geopolitical context. On July 20, Spain’s Sanchez, who is the head of government, visited Algeria for the first time in four years. The visit came after the deterioration of relations stemming from Spain’s backing of Morocco’s self-governed status of the contested Western Sahara in 2022. Sanchez’s visit was intended to restore relations. Some analysts suggest Morocco was left out after Sanchez’s outreach to its rival. The governments have neither confirmed nor denied any link related to the Ceuta explosion.

In Spain, the crisis is also a source of political pressure. The opposition leaders, including Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the leader of the People’s Party, and Santiago Abascal from Vox, have criticized Sanchez’s Government for its border security record. Abascal has called for Sanchez’s dismissal. Sanchez’s government was also criticized by some European conservatives, who tied the surge in undocumented immigration to a Spanish policy that granted legal status to thousands of immigrants living in Spain. The connection has been explicitly denied by Spain’s Foreign Ministry, which said that the Ceuta Crisis “has nothing to do with” this regularization program.

Spain and EU Response

Sanchez visited Ceuta on Friday with Interior Minister Fernando Grande Marlaska. They deemed the large exodus a breach of ‘Spain’s territorial integrity’, and asserted that ‘all of Spain supports’ the enclave. Spain deployed more security staff to the enclave. On Friday evening, the Interior Ministry reported that over 48,300 crossed the border and returned to Morocco. Many returned voluntarily after learning that the enclave was unable to provide food or shelter.

The crisis sparked a wide range of reactions far beyond Spain’s borders. Italy announced on Friday that it would suspend Schengen Area borderless travel to Spain for a month and require passport checks for non-EU nationals arriving via air or sea. Giorgia Mello called the measure “extraordinary” and a way to protect national security. Critics of her government, however, dismissed it as a symbolic move, pointing out that there was no proof migrants who arrived in Ceuta were planning to continue to Italy.

Laurent Nunez declared France would step up surveillance at the French-Spanish border and activate the Rapid Intervention Border Force. EU President Ursula von der Leyen, made aware of the incidents in Ceuta, stated, “The images of Ceuta are unacceptable.” She called Magnus Brunner and two other Commissioners, and in her words, “have them take charge of hysterics and resolve the situation,” and stated, “The perverse crossings must be completely halted. The structures of the smuggling must be dismantled.”

What Happens Next?

Spain’s next migration report is expected to be released in the coming weeks. It will likely include the first count of deaths, arrivals, and returns since the beginning of the surge. The figures were still changing as of Friday night. Sanchez said that his government could pursue legal changes to “guarantee these repatriations in the most efficient manner possible” at the border. This is a sign that Spain may seek to review the rules on summary returns at the heart of the dispute.

Separately, Ceuta’s Government has backed an opposition bill in the Spanish Congress introduced by the People’s Party that would extend summary return rules to anyone who enters Ceuta and Melilla illegally, by land or by sea. The bill, still in its initial stages, has been opposed by several migrant rights groups. The outcome of the bill is still unclear.

If Friday’s crossing is an isolated incident or the beginning of a larger pattern, it will depend on how Spain & Morocco enforce the law in the coming weeks and whether economic pressures that are driving young Moroccans towards Europe have eased.

Conclusion

There are many reasons for this week’s mass migration into Ceuta. One reason, according to the Spanish government, is that the Supreme Court decided that the migration networks began to use smuggling to encourage illegal sea crossings. This does not take into account the years of economic hardship and little to no opportunity for young Moroccans. The relationship between the rising tensions between Spain, Morocco, and Algeria is yet to be clarified. Given that Ceuta is the only land border between Africa and the whole of Europe, when situations become more pressing, Ceuta will likely be at the center of them. As the Spanish government and the European Union write their responses, the rest of the world will continue to determine the reasons behind the mass migration; their numbers and mass migration into Ceuta will continue as it has this week.

FAQs

Where is Ceuta in Spain?

Ceuta is a Spanish autonomous territory located in North Africa. It is adjacent to Morocco; it is located across the Gibraltar strait from mainland Spain from the rest of mainland Spain.

Why did the Spanish Supreme Court ruling matter?

The ruling prevents personnel from returning migrants who were intercepted at sea close to Ceuta and Melilla without an immigration court hearing. This ruling does not pertain to those who enter the territory illegally by land.

Why did Italy suspend the Schengen agreement with Spain?

Within the agreement, Italy returned to enforcing border controls with Spain and justified the reintroduction of ongoing border checks with an increase in illegal immigration to Ceuta. This newly established temporary border control was planned to be in place for one month.

How many migrants crossed into Ceuta?

The Spanish Minister of the Interior reported that approximately 50,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta, while the President of Ceuta reported a higher number of 60,000. Before the end of that week, most of the illegal immigrants returned to Morocco.

Does this have anything to do with the Ceuta Crisis of 2021?

Yes, many Politifact experts will compare the ongoing situation with that of May 2021 when 8,000 illegal immigrants entered Ceuta in only two days as a result of a diplomatic conflict that involved Morocco and Spain.

What is Morocco’s official reaction?

The Spanish government was told by the Moroccan ambassador that Morocco would always put people who migrate in an illegal way, and the Interior Minister of Morocco did not respond to the press about the situation that was going on while the Ministry was in charge.

Follow USA Times Square to continue coverage of the latest migration statistics from Spain and the diplomatic response.